Sunday's 5 can't-miss games for women's basketball tournament hopefuls (2024)

The spirit of March well and truly in the air, when women's college basketball fanatics become consumed with not just their own team's performance, but their potential NCAA Tournament peers as well.

With the release of NCAA.com correspondent Autumn Johnson's latest NCAA Tournament projections, here's a look at five must-watch games on Sunday for March Madness hopefuls.

Michigan State at Michigan | 12 p.m. ET on BTN

Johnson's projections:Michigan State (10 seed), Michigan (No. 11 seed, Last Four In)

Just 14 hours after the men's edition of Michigan and Michigan State's famously hostile rivalry saw the Spartans emerge victorious, the Lady Wolverines will step onto the same floor in desperate need of an opposite outcome. The Wolverines watched as Caitlin Clark broke the all-time women's DI scoring record last time out, and aside from an impressive 80-75 road win at Happy Valley, Michigan has struggled recently in a 2-4 slide. Protecting home court has been particularly troublesome for UM, with recent Ann Arbor setbacks to unranked foes Nebraska and Illinois.

The Spartans, similarly, have lost two games on the bounce, albeit to a pair of the Big Ten's best teams — the Spartans nearly escaped Assembly Hall with a win at No. 14 Indiana before suffering a non-competitive loss at No. 5 Ohio State. Michigan State would also love to improve its 2-6 mark in Quadrant 1 opportunities, with no such opportunities currently remaining on the Spartan schedule. A win tomorrow would go a long way toward securing either teams' slot in the NCAA Tournament.

Penn State at Maryland | 1 p.m. ET

Johnson's projections:Penn State (No. 8 seed), Maryland (First Team Out)

Maryland's remarkable active streak of 18 consecutive NCAA Tournament's appears to be in serious jeopardy, at least in the eyes of Johnson, as the Terrapins currently lie outside of her 68-team field just four weeks from Selection Sunday. The Terps have looked stellar in recent weeks, nearly knocking off Clark and the Hawkeyes in College Park before dominating Rutgers and Illinois on the road, but with ten road losses already and upcoming road bouts at No. 2 Ohio State and No. 14 Indiana, taking care of Penn State could help Maryland avoid a lofty loss total.

Conversely, Penn State looks to snap a four-game losing skid in the DMV and avoid floating toward the fringes of the NCAA Tournament picture. The Nittany Lions' recent run tarnished a once blemish-free NCAA Tournament resume with three-straight Quadrant 2 losses, including a five-point setback against No. 127 Wisconsin, and Penn State is running out of opportunities to improve upon its 1-6 mark in Quadrant 1 games.

No. 12 Virginia Tech at No. 18 Louisville | 2 p.m. ET on ESPN

Johnson's projections:Virginia Tech (No. 3 seed), Louisville (No. 4 seed)

With two of the more celebrated home-court advantages in all of women's college basketball, Virginia Tech and Louisville meet Sunday hoping not just to land a major blow in the ACC title race, but position themselves toward a pair of on-campus March Madness games. The women's basketball tournament that each top-4 seed will host the opening weekend from its own gym, and Virginia Tech and Louisville are both currently to receive that honor in Johnson's latest bracket.

Virginia Tech has extended its traditional Cassell Coliseum dominance across the entire Atlantic Coast in its current emphatic stretch, entering Louisville Sunday riding an eight-game winning streak that includes road triumphs at No. 3 NC State, No. 22 Syracuse and North Carolina. But despite the Hokies' recent dominance, a gaudy 21-4 record and six Quadrant 1 wins, Virginia Tech currently falls just outside the NET's top-16 rankings. With a strong performance Sunday, Virginia Tech will hope to climb the rankings and cement its case for a top-4 seed.

Neck-and-neck with the Hokies through the first half of ACC play, Louisville finally slipped up in recent weeks with losses to common opponents NC State and Syracuse on the road. These setbacks have only left the Cardinals a game behind Virginia Tech in the ACC loss column, however, with a chance to pull even at the KFC Yum! Center Sunday where Louisville is a perfect 13-0 on the season with victories over. A sixth Quad 1 win and a chance at a top-20 NET Rankings beckons for Louisville.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt | 2 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Johnson's projections:Tennessee (No. 10 seed), Vanderbilt (No. 11 seed, Last Four In)

The Vols found themselves with a perfect opportunity to remove all doubt about their place in March Madness mid week, entering the fourth quarter against No. 1 and undefeated South Carolina deadlocked at 48. The dynastic Gameco*cks managed to pull away late, however, and Tennessee suffered its third-straight loss against Quadrant 1 opponents — UT is now just 3-9 in these games overall. This lowly mark is the only red flag on the Lady Vol resume though, enjoying a perfect 12-0 record against all other opponents and improving its NET six places to No. 43 in the last two weeks. With some new-found breathing room off Johnson's cutline Tennessee, who has qualified for every DI women's basketball tournament, will hit the road to play an in-state rival desperately fighting for their place in the NCAA Tournament.

After qualifying for all but one NCAA tournament between 1986 and 2014, Vanderbilt's decade-long drought appeared certain to end through non-conference play, losing just once by single-digits to No. 6 NC State. The Icarian Commodores were quickly consumed by the SEC's bright lights, however, as after flying to a 16-1 start Vanderbilt would lose five-straight games in conference play and throw its March Madness candidacy into serious jeopardy. VU picked themselves up off the mat admirably its last two times out, grinding out defensive road wins against Georgia and Texas A&M, and can land a massive victory over the Vols Sunday.

No. 10 Southern Cal at No. 11 Oregon State | 3 p.m. ET on PAC-12 Network

Johnson's projections:Southern Cal (No. 3 seed), Oregon State (No. 3 seed)

If any one individual were capable of derailing Oregon State's runaway mojo at this stage, bets are it would likely be JuJu Watkins. The freshman sensation proved she can win games all by herself, scoring 51 of USC's 65 points in an historic upset at No. 3 Stanford, and Watkins has scored at least 29 points on impressive efficiency in her last five outings. USC now enjoys three victories against current top-10 squads on the year, but their aforementioned triumph in Palo Alto is their only top-50 result on the road this season.

Corvallis will be a tough place to improve upon that mark, facing a famously hostile crowd and a team now ranked fifth in the RPI after a brilliant past month. With a season-sweep over both Colorado and Utah, along with a thrilling 79-77 victory over No. 9 UCLA on Friday where Talia von Oelhooten scored five points in the final two seconds, the Beavers have amassed an unbelievable 5-0 record against ranked opponents since Jan. 26. With both teams currently affixed to Johnson's three line, a win Sunday for either side could shore up home-court advantage in March — an Oregon State win would also pull the Beavers within one game of Stanford for the PAC-12 title — and vault the winner into contention for a top-2 seed.