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By Intelligencer Staff
The U.S. Capitol. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Unless Congress can pass a bill to fund the federal government (which Donald Trump then signs) before midnight on Friday, the government will be forced to shut down at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday. It’s the first looming shutdown of the second Trump administration, and there are growing signs that while some Senate Democrats will vote to block the bill, there probably won’t be enough of them to do so successfully. Below are the latest developments along with analysis and commentary as the hours count down.
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Chas Danner
Why Senate Democrats shouldn’t pick this fight
A few arguments in favor of Schumer and others not trying to block the CR:
Matt Yglesias concurs:
This is correct, all my friends in DC are hopping mad about the way we are getting screwed on this bill (I am also mad) so it’s especially a hothouse environment for Hill staffers and members.
A shutdown is itself DOGE on steroids. Elon would declare whichever minority federal workers he doesn’t want to fire “essential” furlough everyone else and declare victory. You’d end up with Democrats begging the GOP to pass a CR and bring the workers back.
There is no language you could add to any bill that would avoid the looming Supreme Court showdown about the constitutionality of the Impoundment Control Act — if SCOTUS says that’s good law, then it’s good law. If they say it’s unconstitutional, no rider changes that.
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Chas Danner
We still don’t know how many Democrats will vote for the bill
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ed Kilgore
Now only the courts can stop Trump, Musk, and Vought
With the surrender by Senate Democrats of their power to filibuster the House-passed GOP spending measure, congressional Democrats willingly gave up their only point of leverage over the demolition of the federal government as we’ve known it by the Trump administration.
It’s clear that some Democrats regarded that leverage as imaginary to begin with: in waving the white flag Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer argued that a government shutdown would actually tighten Trump’s grip over federal agencies and personnel, and it’s also true that his Republican colleagues in both Houses showed exactly zero interest in defending Congress’s spending and program-authorizing powers from Trump, Musk, and Vought.
But whether it was the right move or not, this retreat from quite literally the last ditch of resistance to Trump’s destructive agenda means it’s now up to the courts to rein in the unbelievable power grabs being executed by this administration through multiple means. It’s always possible Republicans will have some falling out among themselves that stalls the steamroller, but barring that, we officially have a one-party authoritarian government in Washington right now. It’s sobering to realize that so much immensely fateful litigation is very likely to wind up before the U.S. Supreme Court that Trump did so much to shape, but perhaps at least five justices will find the backbone to resist Trump’s claims of a constitutional right to do whatever the hell he wants.
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Chas Danner
Schumer says shutdown would make everything worse
“While the CR bill is very bad, the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much, much worse,” Schumer said Thursday evening on the Senate floor, while explaining why he would not vote against the GOP’s stopgap bill to fund the government. He said Trump would use the shutdown to expand his power:
For sure, the Republican bill is a terrible option. It is not a clean CR. It is deeply partisan. It doesn’t address far too many of this country’s needs. But I believe allowing Donald Trump to take even much more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option. …
I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country, to minimize the harms to the American people. Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open and not shut it down.
Here’s video of his remarks:
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Chas Danner
Schiff says he’s voting against the CR
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Chas Danner
It looks like there won’t be enough Senate Democrats to stop the stopgap
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Chas Danner
Schumer won’t block the bill
The New York Times reports that the minority leader “told colleagues in their private luncheon at the Capitol on Thursday that he would vote to clear the way for a final vote on the Republican bill extending government funding, according to multiple people familiar with the comments.”
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Chas Danner
Are there enough Senate Democrats to block the bill?
Maybe not:
Punchbowl D.C.’s Andrew Desiderio adds that:
Behind closed doors, most of them seem to agree that a shutdown — especially in this particular moment — could be much more painful (substantively and politically) than any previous shutdown.
But publicly, they want to seem like they’re “fighting” Trump/Republicans.
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Chas Danner
Speaker Johnson offers some advance blame
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Chas Danner
Multiple Senate Democrats say they will vote against GOP funding bill
Arizona’s Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego were both considered possible “yes” votes for the Republican stopgap, but they now say they oppose it. Here’s the statement from Kelly:
I took an oath to protect the constitution. I cannot vote for the Republican plan to give unchecked power to Donald Trump and Elon Musk. I cannot give permission for inflation-causing tariffs and firing thousands of veterans, things that are already having devastating effects on Arizonans and Americans. This might be a tough decision, but that’s what this job is about.
New Jersey’s Andy Kim is against it, too, declaring in a statement that:
Republicans have made it so Musk and the most powerful win and everyone else loses. I don’t want a shutdown but I can’t vote for this overreach of power, giving Trump and Musk unchecked power to line their pockets. I’m a NO on the CR.
New Mexico’s Martin Heinrich and Maryland freshman Angela Alsobrooks, too:
Colorado’s John Hickenlooper is also a no:
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Chas Danner
Poll: Majority would blame Trump or Congressional Republicans for shutdown
It’s just one poll, but:
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Ed kilgore
DOGE is just one wave of the Trump assault on the federal government — there are many others
Something for Democrats contemplating the impact of a potential government shutdown should keep in mind is that DOGE cuts, while the most publicized part of Team Trump’s agenda for disrupting the federal government and reducing its size, is only one part.
There’s also the Reductions-in-Force of up to 700,000 federal employees that Trump initiated by executive order last month that will go public this very day with agency plans to fire staff. There are the plans to impound (i.e., refuse to spend] appropriated funds that is Russ Vought’s favorite baby, as my colleague just noted below. There are back-up plans to promote congressionally endorsed rescissions (i.e., clawbacks) of previously appropriated funds. There are, even more obviously, the cuts in appropriations included in the supposedly “clean” CR before the Senate.
And not far down the road are the massive future cuts that will be mandated in the “one big, beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, mostly to pay for Trump’s tax cut promises. For Democrats and for public employees, it’s like standing on a beach and seeing wave after wave after wave of tsunami waters approaching. The courts may stop or diminish one or two or three, but there’s always another one on the way. In this context a government shutdown will be just another source of pain.
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Chas Danner
Afterward: White House reportedly plans to cut spending sans Congress
According to Fox News’ Elizabeth Elkind:
The White House has already started mapping out how to make good on its promise to slash federal spending in preparation for a six-monthgovernment fundingbill to pass through Congress.
Two people familiar with the conversations told Fox News Digital that PresidentDonald Trumpand Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought are working on a strategy for impounding federal funds that Congress is expected to allocate this week, before the partial government shutdown deadline on March 14.
Trump and his allies have made no secret of their belief that the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 is unconstitutionally constraining the powers of the president. But the new development is a significant step toward a likely legal showdown as Democrats warn they will respond if Trump tries to bypass Congress on federal spending. The fight could go all the way up to the Supreme Court.
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Ed Kilgore
‘Go ahead — make my day!’ some Republicans say about shutdown
One reason Republicans are more or less keeping quiet as Senate Democrats try to decide whether to block or go along with a CR keeping the government open is that they think they win either way, as Rachel Bade of Politicoreported:
White House officials brashly predicted to me that while Elon Musk has gotten flack for dismissing tens of thousands of workers, it’s the Democrats who will take the blame for more than 2 million federal employees getting furloughed, tax returns getting slowed and other benefits and programs getting shuttered if a shutdown occurs…. There’s another reason the White House isn’t sweating a shutdown: Senior officials agree that when coffers run dry, the Trump administration — specifically Vought, the longtime cost-cutting conservative now running OMB — would have unprecedented flexibility to choose which agencies get to stay open and which don’t.
It’s less clear how a government shutdown would affect the legal standing of both DOGE and OMB in pursuing the unilateral cuts in spending and personnel they are pursuing on parallel tracks. Federal courts are beginning to rein in DOGE a bit, and nobody really thinks SCOTUS will agree with Vought that the president can ignore Congress altogether and do whatever he wants to the public sector. A shutdown will muddy the waters even more, but one thing is for sure: it will get the public’s attention in a big way, and may cast light into the dark corners where Vought and Musk prefer to operate.
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ed kilgore
Ocasio-Cortez warns Senate Democrats against playing games
AOC is a little late to the Schumer-bashing party over the CR, but she gets there just as Senate Dems may be reconsidering a cave:
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ed Kilgore
Biggest federal employee union calls for shutdown as the lesser of evils
One development that may be influencing Senate Democrats to hang tough in opposition to the House-passed CR needed to keep the federal government open is a remarkablestatementfrom the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), the largest federal employee union:
With thousands of federal workers either fired, placed on administrative leave, or at immediate risk of losing their jobs, AFGE members have concluded that a widespread government shutdown has been underway since January 20 and will continue to spread whether Senators vote yes or no.
Forcing a government shutdown is the only shred of leverage Democrats have to compel some limits on executive actions imposing mass firings of federal employees and demolition of federal programs Republicans don’t like. And now the largest organization representing those employees says using that leverage is essential even if that means a shutdown that will lead to furloughs of a vast number of workers and work without pay for others.
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chas Danner
Senate Democrats are playing it surprisingly close
Notes TPM’s Kate Riga on Bluesky:
I’ve truly never seen Senate Dems so tight-lipped. The usually chatty Brian Schatz to me: “I’m not gonna be commenting on any of that; we’re still in negotiations.” Lots of referring to old statements. Get the sense no one wants to get out ahead of their skis, at least before today’s lunch meeting
Bloomberg adds:
Senate moderates continued to be coy about whether they would block the House bill if the shutdown deadline was imminent. SenatorsJack Reedof Rhode Island,Mark Kellyof Arizona, andElissa Slotkinall demurred when asked.
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Ed kilgore
Will there be a government shutdown? Nobody knows except maybe Chuck Schumer.
As of Wednesday night, it looked like apath was emergingwhereby Senate Democrats would abandon plans to filibuster the House-passed spending bill (known as a CR, for “continuing resolution”) needed to keep the government from shutting down midnight on Friday. In exchange for allowing a cloture motion to cut off debate, they’d obtain the right to offer an alternative 30-day CR (without the defense and border-security spending add-ons and domestic spending cuts the House insisted on), which would go down on a party-line vote. This would be quickly followed by passage of the House CR on a party-line vote as well. Progressive social-media reaction to this rather deceptive strategy was savage, and Thursday morning there were scattered signs of renewed militance on the part of previously wavering Senate Democrats like Mark Warner and John Hickenlooper. Maybe Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer knows where his conference is going, but it’s a mystery to everyone else.
This post has been updated.
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